"Hurricane Isaac"

I am aware that, as I type this,  Isaac is still classified as a tropical storm. However, by the time it makes landfall either on the Mississippi or Louisiana Gulf Coast, it is expected to be at least a Category I hurricane.

According to the most recent projections, Isaac should hit the Louisiana Gulf Coast and proceed into the New Orleans area.  My daughter lives in New Orleans (NOLA), and I've already had conversations with her about whether or not she should leave for a few days.

One of the courses that I teach here at Alluvial Flood Plain State University is a Risk and Insurance class.  A one-word definition that I ask my students to use for risk is uncertainly.

As you can tell by the image/map above, at some point when the storm was probably east of the Florida Keys, meteorologists had no idea where the storm would eventually go.  This map was indicating Isaac to be a Cat II storm with anticipated landfall around Mobile, Alabama.

It seems that Isaac is going to make landfall on August 29, exactly seven years after Katrina hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast.  The storm veered to the east of NOLA, sparing a direct hit.  At the time of land fall, Ground Zero being Bay St. Louis, MS, Katrina was a Cat III.

Hurricanes are divided into quadrants.

It is the Right Front Quadrant that is the most dangerous part of a hurricane.  This is where the most tornadoes should be generated... the heaviest winds, the heaviest rains.  Hurricanes are intense low pressure weather cells, which mean that they have a counter-clockwise movement.  When one considers that Katrina moved to the east of NOLA, that meant that the heavy rains and winds would be blowing into NOLA from the north... over Lake Pontchartrain, and forcing heavy waters into the canals that feed into NOLA.  Those are the levees that failed... that is why NOLA flooded. It wasn't from a direct hit from Katrina.  I recently read that the Army Corp. of Engineers say that a barge broke loose and rammed a levee, causing the breach. 

Do you remember Isaac from 'Love Boat?'

Hurricane Survival Check List HERE.

I remember, after Katrina hit, that one meteorologist made the comment that  Hurricane CAMILLE  killed more people in 2005 than she did in 1969. Someone corrected him and said, 'you mean Katrina killed more in 2005 than Camille did in 1969, don't you?'  

The meteorologist said, 'No, Camille gave many people a false sense of security; if we survived Camille, we can survive this one.'

Many didn't.

Interesting Before/After  Katrina Photos of Bay St. Louis

I am very familiar with Bay St. Louis, Ms.  The bottom photo is referred to as an area being 'slabbed' in the insurance industry.  Nothing was left but the slabs of the homes.

I'm sure if you are a fan of 'Walking Dead,' you've seen this image...

dramatic effect of everyone leaving town...

Real effect of everyone leaving town...

Notice that there are no empty lanes... notice that everyone is being routed in the same direction.  This is what it looks like when one is in a 'Get The Hell Outta Dodge' mode...

My daughter's subjective risk of this danger is much greater than mine. I would be packed and leaving. She seems to be excited about it.

Dad isn't...

~shoes~